|Today's exclusive Story :
Looking Beyond Iraq
- the impending Shia-Sunni Civil Wars in the Middle East
The next few months will see the following Muslim-on-Muslim civil
wars across the Islamic crescent.
The Iraq theater
The Iraq theater is already on fire with the daily killings by
Shiites and Sunnis of each other. We need only add here that the next
stage would be when the Shiite and Sunni populations are entirely
ethnically cleansed from the mixed localities. After which the
bloodletting will be along more clearly defined borders with the
Shiites concentrated in Southern Iraq and the Sunnis in the Jazeera
(Triangle) in Anbar. There would be no individual killings of Shiites
and Sunnis as there would be none of them living in the others'
Today the populations are still mixed, so we have individual and
targeted killings in marketplaces, mosques. This is bloody enough,
but what will follow when the populations are exchanged into clearly
defined Shiite and Sunni zones would be far more bloodier with dirty
bombs, tactics like poisoning of water sources and even nuke devices
being used to cause mass-casualties in the enemy zones especially in
cities like Najaf, Karbala and Basra.
The Baker-Hamilton Report: In the midst of all this the Baker-Hamilton report on Iraq suggests that the oil fields in Iraq be brought under the control of the Central Iraqi Authority (read the Shiite dominated regime at Baghdad). This will draw a wedge between the Kurds who would not want to give up the oil wells in Kirkuk to their Shiite fair weather friends. The Kurds are Sunnis although they flaunt their ethnicity and not their religion. But if push comes to shove, then the Kurds will not think twice before setting their Peshmergas (Kurdish militias) in to action against the forces of the Shiite dominated Iraqi army, if the Shiites make any attempt to control; the Kurdish Oil wells at Kirkuk.
If M/s. Baker-Hamilton wanted a peaceful Iraq (by Middle Eastern Standards!), then they should have suggested the trifurcation of Iraq, within or without a federal framework. But with the recommendation of a Strong Secular Central authority (which would inevitably translate to the reinstatement of the Baathists of the former Iraqi army disbanded by the coalition in 2003) the Sunnis would pitted against the Shiites who run a sectarian Shiite regime that is far from secular.
And to top all this, the Baker-Hamilton report asks the US to talk to Iran of all things! Any idea of talking to the Shiite Iranian Mullahs will infuriate the Iraqi Sunnis and the more so Baathists among them who fought an eight year long war with the Shiite Iranian Mullah regime. This suggestion will draw the Sunnis and Shiites further apart.
In brief, the suggestions of the Baker-Hamilton report would divide Iraq further and exacerbate the already raging civil war! Did anyone in the Middle East spot this out when the Baker-Hamilton report was tabled?
The ramping up of the Iraq theater would see mass fatalities to the tune of thousands and hundreds of thousands at one go, as against tens and hundreds now. This process would be accentuated by the flow of armaments and ordnance from Iranians to the Iraqi Shiites and from the Saudis to the Iraqi Sunnis. The Saudis would make peace with the Al Qaeda and co-ordinate their activities with the Qaeda on the sly.
The Palestinian Theater
The deadly cocktail of two diametrically and intrinsically opposite forces of Democracy and Islam have created a fertile ground for a conflict between two murderous groups, the Fatah and the Hamas today, in Judea, Samaria and Gaza (also mistakenly termed as the Palestinian territories). Islam calls for a total surrender to the will of a fantasy which the Muslims call allah, This is mixed with democracy, which calls for the will of the majority of the people to be supreme. Islam calls for the murder of all those who do not submit to the will of those who wield power in the name of the fantasy called allah, and democracy calls for a dialogue between opposites within a constitutional framework.
Fatah and Hamas, both of who invoke Islam and are caught up inside one democratic framework are like two murderous crocodiles (read Islamic terror gangs) caught within a cage (read democracy). The only outcome is the use of the confines of the cage (read the democratic framework) as an alibi for the most basic instincts of the two crocodiles bloodletting! This is what we are witnessing today in Judea, Samaria and Gaza (also mistakenly termed as the Palestinian territories).
What is surprising is that the Sunni Hamas ironically has a sponsor in the Iranian Shiite regime but what is not well known that the Al Aqsa martyrs brigade of the Fatah has established backdoor links with Al Qaeda. An indicator of these alliances is the fact that the Hamas spokesman goes in front of the global media and states that Hamas is not the Al Qaeda or the Taliban! But why does he omit to specify that Hamas is not like the Hezbollah or the Mullah regime of Iran?? This itself leaves a telltale story of the emerging sponsors of the Hamas and the Al Aqsa Martyrs brigade of the Fatah in the Palestinian theater of the Islamic civil war. A civil war that has nothing civil about it save the name!!
This brings us to the spill over of this war into Jordan and the terrifying rationale for Jordans king Abdullah to stem the Palestinian civil war from erupting further. He has called over the leaders of Fatah and Hamas to Amman to talk peace. He knows that if the Palestinian territories go up in flames, Jordan will not remain peaceful for long with its overwhelming Palestinian population. Jordan would soon end up as the battle ground for Hamas and Fatah a terrifying prospect that His Majesty King Abdullah of Jordan dreads and so is trying his level best to avert. But alas he will fail.
The Jordanian Theater
King Abdullah of Jordan smartly gave Jordan a miss when he mentioned
the three civil wars in Iraq, Lebanon and in the Palestinian
territories. But Jordan which has a majority population of
Palestinians and is held down under the tight fist of the Hashemite
Jordanian monarchy with the help of loyal Bedouin army, would burst
at its seams when the Palestinians who have already started the bloodletting between Hamas and Fatah and could soon start their next intifada against Israel to provide both Fatah and Hamas followers with a common target, while murdering one other.
But why Jordan? Because both Hamas and Fatah would try to seize
control of Jordan by overthrowing the Hashemite monarchy to get a
base to strike at Israel and realize their dream of a united
Palestine without Israel!. And, for the goons of the Hamas and Fatah,
striking and taking over Jordan as a first step, is much easier than
attempting to destroy Israel upfront!
The Hashemites Kings of Jordan have always been critical of the
Wahabis (although they themselves too are Sunnis). But the Wahabi
brand of Sunni Islam finds no favor with the Hashemites ever since
the Hashemite dynasty was overthrown in the Hejaz by the Saudi
Wahabis in the last century.
Today the relations between the Saudi Wahabi regime and the Hashemite
monarchy of Jordan are overtly cordial. But with the Shiite-Sunni
bloodletting all across the Middle East and especially with the
Palestinian civil war hotting up, the Saudis would be overtaken by
the Al Qaeda and would allow the Qaeda terrorists to team up with the
Hamas to take over Jordan. The Jordanian theater would see a civil
war not of the Shiite-Sunni type, but the Hashemite-Wahabi type!
The Saudi theater
The Saudis have cast nervous eyes at the bloodletting in Iraq, and
they know for sure that when the Iraqi Shiites form a semi-
independent enclave in Southern Oil rich Iraq, the Saudi Shiites of
Al Khobar and Dhahran would become restive. And egged on by Iran the
Saudi Shiites would not be averse to demand more privileges for their
oil rich province and eventually greater autonomy to culminate in
their own militias and insurgency to demand an independent state as
their Iraqi Shiites would have achieved by then. Thus the Saudis
would see the Iraqi style bloodletting mirrored in their oil rich,
Shiite dominated North Eastern Saudi provinces.
The Saudis would then initiate an informal pact with the Al Qaeda and
stop all punitive measures against the Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. The
Qaeda in turn will help the ruling Sunni Wahabis of Riyadh to quash
the Shiite rebellion in Al Khobar and Dhahran which would spill over
to the Shiite dominated but Sunni ruled Bahrain, with repercussions
in the UAE (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah) and Oman (Muscat).
The Iranian theater
With Iran playing its dirty game of pitting Shiites against the
Sunnis in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the Saudis would return the Iranian
compliment by fomenting unrest in the Arab population of the Fars
province in South-Western Iran. This would see a mini Iraq in South-
Western Iran. With the Al Qaeda chipping in, we could see mega terror
attacks by the Al Qaeda all over Iran especially in Qom and Tehran.
The Lebanese Theater
With the first killings of Shiite (Hezbollah) demonstrators by the
Sunnis in Lebanon, the Shiite-Sunni wound has been opened in Lebanon
too. Last time around the Lebanese Civil war was on Muslim-Christian
This time the Maronite Christians have grown wiser due to the
happenings around them and have displayed a shrewd acknowledgement of
the shape of things to come in Lebanon in the near future.
Advised by their allies in the West, the Maronites have smartly split
their ranks and kept one foot each in both Muslim camps. In the
Shiite camp they have General Aoun and in the Sunni camp they have
Amin Gemayal. Running with the hare and hunting with the hound!
Thus the Christians have ensured that in the impending Lebanese
Shiite-Sunni civil war, neither the Shiites nor the Sunnis target
them, as that would led to the Christians joining the other camp en
masse! This should ensure the safety of the Maronite Christians or
so we hope! The Phalangists (Maronite Militia) have in the meanwhile
kept their gunpowder dry with a finger on the trigger, to fight a
pitched battle along with their Druze allies led by the astute Jumblatt.
The Syrian Theater
The Syrian Baathist regime has smartly fomented terrorism outside
Syria, while keeping a tight lid on terror within Syria itself. But
then you cannot train a snake to bit somebody else, The snake will
eventually bite the hand that trains it! The snake of Shiite
(Hezbollah) terrorism that the Syrians have so assiduously trained
will singe Syria too.
The ruling Syrian elite is Alawite which is a sub-sect of the larger
Shiite sect, although they do not proclaim themselves as Shiites. But
whenever the Sunnis have raised their hood in Syria, the Baathist
regime has used all its firepower including air force to bombard the
Sunnis into dust. As it did with the Sunni led Muslim brotherhood at
Hama (Homs) last time around when senior Assad (Hafez) was ruling
There is no love lost between the Syrian regime and the Sunnis who
form the majority in Syria. Syria would be the surprise theater of
Civil War when things hot up in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Jordan.
Just you watch!
The Turkish theater
With the Kurds in Iraq proclaiming their own state, the Turks would
try to throttle the new Kurdish state to stall any move by Turkish
Kurds to join it by taking with them the Kurdish majority province of
South Eastern Turkey. The Turkish civil war would start as a blockade
followed by a war between the regime in Ankara against the Iraqi
Kurdistan and graduate into a war with its own Kurdish population
At that juncture a surprise move could be a coup-d-etat by the
secular Turkish army against the Islamist Government of Erdogan's
Justice Party. This would lead to a further violent complication of
the Turkish theater, with the Al Qaeda throwing its weight behind the
Erdogan regime and the Turkish Justice party. The Turkish Army could
carry the final victory if the spirit of Ataturk prevails, and Turkey
could see the defeat of Islamism there, albeit after much
The Egyptian Theater
This could be a minor theater with the Muslim brotherhood trying to
grab power by overthrowing the "secular" regime of President Mubarak.
The Pakistani Theater
On the sidelines this could be the potentially most dangerous theater
where the Al Qaeda would try to use the Jihadist generals of the
Pakistani Armed forces to overthrow the "secular" regime of General
The Pakistani theater could see the Shiites and Ahmediyas (Qadiyanis -
incidentally the Prime Minister of Pakistan who was hand picked by
Musharraf is an Ahmediya) supporting Musharraf against the Al Qaeda
inspired Jihadist generals of the Pakistani Army and their cohorts
from the MMA and the Pakistani Taliban, the Lashkar-e-tayyaba, the
Jaish-e-Mohammed and other Sunni led terror organizations, et al.
All in all, the next two years, before the Presidential elections in
the US, would see a meltdown in the Middle East which would be topped
by the IDF and USAF using the opportunity to bombard Natanz, Busheher
and other Iranian and Pakistani nuclear sites. The Iranian sites
would be the first to be targeted. The ones in Pakistan like Kahuta
would come within the crosshairs of the F18s only after Musharraf is
Sources: Rand, Stratfor, PINR, and relevant classified memos.
Saddam End of an Era?
Heck no, we are not referring to the end of any era called the Saddam Era. We are referring to what we read in the verdict on the death penalty for Saddam, (to use and Arabic term) opening the gates of hell between the Shiites and Sunnis not just in Iraq but all over the Middle East.
We can see the wild tumultuous welcome given by the Shiites to this verdict and the seething response in the Sunni areas. This verdict will lead to many fatalities. We hope our marines manage to stay out of it as far as is possible.
Islam to be hanged to death?
The end of the era part will make itself felt when the Shiite-Sunni war spills out of Iraq, first into Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and then in Syria, Lebanon, and finally Iran and Pakistan.
The verdict on gallows for Saddam is a verdict on dividing and destroying Islam. And that is how it got to be. It couldnt have gotten different or gotten better! Just wait and watch folks, the fireworks are about to begin in the Middle East. The only regret is our boys will be in the midst of it all.
Musharraf's double talk on A Q Khan and on Pakistani ISI's role in aiding Al Qaeda
The International Crisis Group (ICG), is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, with nearly 120 staff members on five continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.
The ICG has in a recent report maintained that Pakistan's military intelligence agency the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has all along facilitated the activities of the Al Qaeda both inside Pakistan and all across the globe.
Reacting to this, the Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has brusquely rejected claiming that the ISI operates under the control of the Pakistani army and government.
Now here there is a catch to Musharraf's Claim. Either way he is in double-trouble. If in fact the Pakistani army and government does control all that the ISI does, then it means that the ISI has been supporting Al Qaeda under the orders of the Pakistani government and army!
So the US needs to act against Pakistan as it threatned to do so in the aftermath of 9/11 - bomb Pakistan to the Stone Age, as Armitage told Musharraf.
And if what Musharraf says is wrong , and that the ISI is acting alone, it means that the ISI is not under the control of the Pakistani government and army. This is indeed a calamitious situation. And even in this scenario, the US needs to act against the Pakistani government and take steps to destory the ISI as it is an ally of the Al Qaeda.
Which option does Musharraf choose now. He has an option now, as he did in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 to be with the USA or be with the Terrorists. He in fact is already with the terrorists, clandestinely. Now he can be with them openly, or he can defect to the USA, and let Pakistan be tackled by the USA using all means the US deems necessary. Will Musharraf make the right choice now and switch sides by ditching the ISI and Al Qaeda and as he once ditched the Taliban after 9/11, and when will the USA recognize the dangers to itself from this rouge state - Pakistan?
Pakistan's role in A Q Khan's Nuclear Wheeling-dealing
A similar logic holds when Musharraf says that AQ Khan engaged in nuclear wheeling-dealing on his own, without the knowledge of the Govt of Pakistan. If Khan did it without the knowledge of the Govt of Pakistan, then the US needs to take control of the situation as the Pakistanis have no control over Khans Nuclear Walmart.
But if Khan did it as part of the strategy of the Pakistani Government, then the situation is far more dangerous, the USA needs to treat Pakistan as an enemy (in classified policy although the declared policy can treat it as a MNNA Major Non-NATO Ally) but we should make up our minds to tackle Pakistan militarily, as soon as Iran is out of the way.
Source: Waronjihad Team
How the Sunnis (Hamas, Al Qaeda) and Shiites (Hizbollah, Iran) will Demolish the Middle East
The events thus far
Shiite-Hezbollah led terror attacks on Israel intensify
Israel launches a limited ground invasion of Lebanon to remove the Hezbollah from its northern borders
Saudis distance themselves from Iran backed Shiite Hezbollah
Israeli attacks cause heavy damage in Lebanon
But Israel also suffers reverses. In this war Israel faces an unconventional enemy unlike as in the Six Day war and the Yom Kippur war
UN forces deploy in South Lebanon to ensure the peace, but fail to disarm Hezbollah.
Hezbollah backed by Iran pays heavy damages to the Shiites in Lebanon who have sufferred property losses during this war
The Shape of things to come
Hezbollah prepares gathering nuclear tipped missiles for the next round of war with Israel. (We are at this stage now)
Egged on by Iran, Shiite-Hezbollah and Hamas led terror attacks on Israel intensify marking the beginning of the 3rd Palestinian Intifada
Israel mounts air attacks on Gaza but launches a sweeping ground invasion of Lebanon for a second time since 2006 to wipe out the Hezbollah threat forever
As the war intensifies, the UN forces in Lebanon begin to withdraw.
Israel warns Syria with military action
Syria threatens Israel with serious consequences.
Mega nuclear terror attack inside Israel
Israel declares Syria and Iran to be culpable and launches a swift land and air assault on Syria and Iran
Syria appeals for Arab military action to save itself
IDF (Israel Air Force) destroys Iranian nucler sites at Natanz, Bushehr and other underground locations using bunker buster nuclear tipped missiles.
Iran tries to crash missiles into Israel and Europe
Internal rebellion breaks out in Iran
US special forces start operating inside Iran to topple Mullah regime
Iranian/Hezbollah forces stage terrorist attacks in Israel and in the West
Shiites leaders Al Hakim and Maqtada al Sadr assassinated in Iraq.
A full scale civil war starts between the Sunni dominated insurgents and the new Shiite led Iraqi military dominated by the late Al Hakims Badr Brigades and aided by the late Al Sadrs Mahdi Militia
Iran sends in insurgents to back Shiites
Saudis, Syrians, Egyptians, Kuwaitis, Palestinians send in insurgents to back Sunnis
Saudis and Kuwaitis call for US action to stop Iran from intensifying the Iraqi civil war
Egypt faces a civil war with sections of the Egyptian Military under the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood launch a insurrection against the Mubarak administration.
Pressurized by Syria and Egypt, Saudi Arabia starts feeble military action against Israel
Israel overruns Northern Saudi Arabia and Syria in a pincer movement to join up with US forces stationed in Iraq and occupies Damascus.
US forces enter Syria from Syrian-Iraqi border in the North, join up with Israeli military
After the conquest of Syria, Israel turns on Egypt to help the pro Mubarak forces and annexes Sinai, crosses Suez Canal and threatens Cairo that is now in the hands of the Muslim brotherhood led Military junta.
US launches an air blitz of Iran followed by a land invasion and sets up a new regime
Another spectacular terror attack inside Israel with Dirty Bombs. Suspects traced to Saudi backed insurgents.
Sunni Terrorists blow off Iraqi parliament, Presidential palace, Prime Ministers residence
Terrorists assassinate Ministers, Parliamentarians
Sunni Terrorists blow off Shiites Mosques at Najaf and Karbala, assassinate Al Hakim, and Moqtada Al Sadr who are important Shiites leaders and clerics.
Upheaval in the entire Arab world
Saudi regime overthrown by Wahabis. The new regime enters the war against Israel.
Sustained IAF (Israel Air Force) nuke strike on Saudi cities, Mecca, Medina, Mena, Jiddah Riyadh, taken off the map.
Western diplomats and businessmen attacked, kidnapped, beheaded
Anti-American riots in Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia.
Musharraf and Yudhyono regimes under tremendous pressure to give up pro-US stance
Musharraf assassinated by pro-Jihadi elements in Army due to his association with the US. The Jihadis last straw being his helping the Americans in finding Iran's nuke sites as a trade off for letting AQ Khan off the hook. But Mushy's gamble does not pay off, as he loses his job and life.
Jihadi regime in Pakistan ups hostility with India
Jihadis succeed in smuggling nuclear devices in the US and exploding them simultaneously
US army takes over US administration, suspends constitution
US military regime blockades the UN and declares it persona non-grata
US enters into emergency war council with Russia and Britain
The triple alliance starts nuclear bombing military targets across the Islamic world
Pakistani nukes taken out in first strike
Pakistan explodes some nuke devices on India
Indian retaliation wipes off Pakistan off the map death toll in South Asia is over half a billion
Widespread Hindu-Muslim riots in India on the lines of the Gujarat riots of 2002. Muslim population decimated, Hindus and Christians also suffer heavy death toll.
Nuclear campaign launched by the triple alliance intensifies as many cities in the Islamic world are taken off the map to wipe off the air forces.
Seaports in the Islamic world crippled to decapitate the navies
Radiation causes second wave of deaths. The toll in secondary deaths more than three billion
More than half of the fatalities are Muslims.
Almost the entire population in the Muslim world is decimated.
China joins war against Islam, wipes off Muslim (Ughir) population in Eastern Turkestan
Muslims in Europe launch a wave of terror attacks in European capitals
Conditions in Europe very disturbed in a civil war like situation
Right wing coups in France, Germany, Spain, Netherlands, Denmark. The new regimes join the triple alliance
Widespread anti-Muslim riots in Europe aided by the militaries of those countries and NATO forces
Domestic military action against Muslims in Europe intensifies as European militaries undertake combing operations to flush out Muslims
The post-war Muslim population worldwide now accounts for only one percent of the global population concentrated mostly in Europe
Military action ends, US, Britain and Russia announce reconstruction plan for the non-Muslim world
Islam outlawed across the globe
Residual Muslims worldwide embrace Christianity, Judaism, Zoroastrianism, Hinduism, Buddhism.
Humanity enters post-Islamic phase.
This write-up has been compiled based on analysis by Seymour Hersh and information at the following sites; Stratfor.org, Rand.org, Military.com